Violent crime in the United States declined in 2008, due in part to a significant drop in the number of murders, according to the first available FBI figures covering the entire year.
The preliminary figures for 2008, released Monday, show that overall reported crime dropped 2.5 percent nationally from the previous year, including a 4.4 percent decline in murders.
Overall, the number of aggravated assaults declined 3.2 percent, forcible rape decreased 2.2 percent, and robbery decreased 1.1 percent.
The article explains that over the last two decades there has been a general decline in violent crime with the exception of 2005. With these latest figures the FBI is happy to report that the downward trend has resumed.
What could account for the spike in crime during 2005? How do you explain the general trend regardless of the presumed increase in firearm availability?
What's your opinion? Because these figures come from the FBI, are they trustworthy? Is it very cynical of me to even question numbers like these, from this impeccable source?
It reminds me of that time Marlo was hiding all those bodies in the vacant buildings in Baltimore or Prez learned that it's the same wherever you go.
"Juking the stats.
Makin' robberies into larcenies.
Makin' rapes disappear.
You juke the stats and majors become colonels."
Well they're certainly more credible than data / stats that come from the Brady Campaign, VPC, or any Joyce funded anti-gun sources.
ReplyDelete"Is it very cynical of me to even question numbers like these, "
ReplyDeleteNot if you have objective evidence supporting it.
Do you?
Or do you think the NRA forced them to doctor the numbers?
Violent crime down, in a year when firearms sales were very high? What's the "gun availability" spin on that, Mikeb?
ReplyDeleteOr do you think the NRA forced them to doctor the numbers?
ReplyDeleteThe FBI--infamous shills for the "gun lobby" ;-).
It's interesting, MikeB will take joyce funded "studies" and any data put out by the VPC or Brady Campaign at face value, but when the FBI or BJS puts out the raw crime data he's skeptical.
ReplyDeleteI guess he can't really allow certain facts to enter his mind, since that might force him to re-evaluate his position.
OK, you've already got ripped for questioning the FBI stats, so I won't go there. To be perfectly honest, I don't simply want to come here to rip on anybody, I have other targets for that energy.
ReplyDeleteSo here's my honest opinion...
I can't gaurntee this is the exact same experiment...
http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/87/2/09-062836/en/index.html
but it is the jist of my theory.
Violent crime and anti-social behavior increases in highly dense population centers. Los Angels, Chicago, DC, NY, Detroit,,,blah blah blah.
The basic experiment goes like this.
1. Take ten rats and put them into a cage.
2. Determine how much food/water they need to be fat and happy and pile on an extra 10%.
3. Wait for a few months.
4. Double the amount of rats in the same size cage and double the amount of food/water.
5. Repeat steps 3-4 every few months.
The findings were that once a critical mass of rats-to-square footage is reached, the rats murder each other.
They had plenty of food, and plenty of water; they simply wanted more space.
This was a very repeatable experiment.
Thirdpower said, "Or do you think the NRA forced them to doctor the numbers?"
ReplyDeleteNo, not the NRA but the FBI themselves. Don't they get some credit when crime goes down?
And in spite of what Mike W. says, I place the same cynicism on the Brady and VPC numbers. I distrust all statistics, I've said so many times.
I distrust all statistics, I've said so many times.
ReplyDeleteDismissing official numbers certainly offers the advantage of allowing you to toss around your own wild numbers, with no substantiation whatsoever.
"No, not the NRA but the FBI themselves. "
ReplyDeleteProof?
45Superman said, "Dismissing official numbers certainly offers the advantage of allowing you to toss around your own wild numbers, with no substantiation whatsoever."
ReplyDeleteWell there is the substitution of common sense and logic. Honestly, some of you're ideas like "more guns means less gun violence," are sorely lacking in common sense and logic.
Well that's funny Mike, considering you can't even characterize our basic ideas correctly...
ReplyDelete