Thursday, January 31, 2013

More on the "Chicago" Lie

from The Corner Tavern in response to David Mamet's article thanks to democommie

Ah, that old saw. Tough gun laws don’t stop crime, because – Chicago! Only Mamet, unlike most who repeat this trope, hilariously misfires by including Washington, D.C. in the gun-laws-equal-more-crime argument. As it happens, the 2012 murder rate in the nation’s capital was the lowest it’s been since 1963.

But he is correct that the murder rate spiked in Chicago last year. It probably has nothing to do with the city’s “tough” gun laws, though; and, in fact, the opposite may be the case. As I’ve explained before, Chicago had a handgun ban in place until the U.S. Supreme Court struck it down in 2010.

Meanwhile, according to the 2011 Chicago Murder Analysis published by the Chicago Police Department (.pdf file), the city’s murder rate declined more or less steadily from well over 900 murders a year in the early 1990s to around 435 murders per year in 2010 and 2011. 2011 Chicago Murder Analysis, p. 4. 

So, the facts, Dave, are these: Chicago’s murder rate declined by more than half from the early 1990s to 2010, all while the city’s handgun ban was in effect; but two and a half years after the handgun ban was stricken down, Chicago’s murder rate ticked up by about 17% (from 433 in 2011 to 506 in 2012). Whether or not the recent increase in Chicago’s murders is related to the Court striking down the city’s handgun ban, you simply can’t argue that the opposite is true, because the murder rate plummeted under even tougher gun laws than Chicago has today. Facts, man. They always get in the way of the narrative.

20 comments:

  1. Mike the FBI shows a drop in gun crime yes I'll give you that. But the rest rape, assault and so are way up I have proven this to you time and time again you ignore it and move on to some thing ells. So if any thing you need to remember the facts and how they always get in your way.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Also what about Detroit, New York and LA those have high crime and strict gun laws?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't try to switch horses in the middle of the race. You guys continually cite Chicago. You know why? Because you mindlessly repeat what others have mindlessly repeated.

      Delete
    2. Mike I'm not you're trying to straw man, I have menchianed those city's before. I'm also pointing out ALL the city's with tough gun laws that have high crime. Also The F.B.I. also over-counts American murders, by listing the 1,500 - 2,500 legal, self- defense fatal shootings of criminals as illegal homicide. You can try and say no but look into for your self and you'll see how true it is but if I must I'll post the link again.

      Delete
  3. Damn it I forget this to Mike the PD counts shooting and killing some one i defense as part of gun crime/murder so really going by that, that means those killed could have bin home invaders would be rapist or even would be killers.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The F.B.I. also over-counts American murders, by listing the 1,500 - 2,500 legal, self- defense fatal shootings of criminals as illegal homicide. Sorry I know it's a big mess I'm posting on this one.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DGU statistics are crap. Gunsuck illusions, delusions, and paranoia strongly affects these. Probably 90-95 % of DGUs are really fantasy, born of the mental illness that NRA members have.

      Delete
  5. The entire argument about Chicago is filled with amazingly stupid ideas, and that is because the arguments are advanced by NRA members, who are invariably stupid. First, the gun laws are only for Chicago, but Chicago is surrounded by suburbs with much laxer laws - and if you have ever been to Chicago, the suburbs are right next to it, and you can get there on public transport or on the roads. Secondly, many of the gun stores are aggressive in their gun sales, and are active participants in the gun running process.

    ReplyDelete
  6. The decline in homicide rates in Chicago follows the decline across the country, except that the rest of America saw a better fall in violence. Chicago remains a violent city, much more so that other cities and states with good gun laws.

    With regard specifically to the idea that guns have suddenly become available legally in the city, note that even after the McDonald ruling, the laws are still obstructionist.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's crap, Greg. The laws are not as loose as you'd like, but that are looser. They are contributing to the problem which is increasing again.

      Delete
    2. Buying a gun legally in Chicago and possessing it legally in said city is still exceedingly difficult. Do we really need to discuss all the regulations?

      Delete
  7. Zero murders with an assault rifle and more murders when there was a ban and less when there wasn't a ban. Less murders when it was super cold weather. More murders when it was super hot.

    This place is like bean-counters heaven.

    orlin sellers

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hey Mike, it would be real nice if there had been a statistic correlation between "Handgun Ban" and "Homicide Rate", except:
    A) The Chicago Handgun ban was implemented in 1982.
    B) Murder rates kept climbing for 12 years after words, despite a ban.

    You know what did happen in Chicago during the 1980s? The Crack Epidemic and the rise of gang warfare; something that tapered off into the 1990s across the entire country. It would seem the gun laws were irrelevant to the overall question more than the rise of criminal activity.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry, Jack, the crack epidemic as well as other factors did play a part, but to say the gun laws are irrelevant is wrong.

      Delete
    2. Except you have no evidence to say that gun control does any good.

      Delete
    3. England isn't proof. The English have important cultural differences from us. They're willing to queue up to comply with their government. We're not. Their tradition says stay an fight, then accept whatever is the outcome. Ours is one of going to a new world to make the place in our will. England also had a long history of registration and licensing, and a smaller proportion of guns and gun ownership. We're heavily armed and legally something like the English during the Victorian era.

      So in a hundred years, with sweeping gun control and radical cultural changes, we might reach a point at which England would count as proof.

      Delete
  9. The proliferation of guns especially after the McDonald ruling is fueling the crisis in Chicago. It's most unfortunate that so-called responsible gun owners can't keep positive control of their weapons.

    But, hey what do Gun Nuts care they are only interested in their guns and the profits for the Gun Industry. So suffer little children.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What proliferation? What evidence do you have of a huge increase in legal guns in Chicago since McDonald?

      Delete