The United States homicide rate was 4.7 per 100,000 people. When the United States population is broken down by demographic groups, those rates range from 0.7 to 17.1 per 100,000 population. Since the two neighbors have vastly different demographics, and there appears to be no official breakdown of the demographics of Canadian homicide victims, the United States population and homicide rate must be “normalized” to Canada’s.Isn't that a riot? The way pro-gun guys twist and rationalize is truly funny. They can take any statistics, like Canada is 1.9 and the US is 4.7 and twist it into the actual difference is 0.07.
Canada’s official “police reported” a total of 676 “violations resulting in death,” that is, homicides, which results in a raw calculated 2011 rate of 1.9 per 100,000 population.
Returning to normalization, the US demographic group with the highest homicide rate, 17.1, comprises 12.6% of the US population, but only 2.5% of Canada’s population.
When the homicide rates among the various US population groups is “normalized,” with the various components of the United States population represented in the same percentage as Canada, the US homicide rate is – 2.0! The difference is not only trivial, both numbers are rounded, Canada’s down and the United States up. The actual difference is 0.07!
The simple and obvious fact is Canada, much like the UK, has a murder rate far lower than the US. Surely one of the factors in this difference is gun availability.
What's your opinion? Please leave a comment.
Just another example of how nothing can convince a gunloon that guns are a problem, even statistics.
ReplyDeleteAnd I should say, as a professional statistician, this "normalization" is bunk. They'll take any statistic that seems unfavorable and start applying conjured conditions to warp the data to their preconceived notions, as if they had training in statistical mathematics. Like sheep, their fellow gunloons will then spread the lie, quoting this nonsense as if they were real statistics.
Thanks, Baldr. Thanks for this and all your other recent comments. I appreciate your support.
DeleteBy the way, on Democratic Underground there are a few guys who are convinced you and I are the same. Why they even care or think it's a big deal, I have no idea. But these guys are more fun than a barrel full of monkeys, I'll say that.
It's called risk adjustment, Dingus. It's like comparing observed mortality between an urban and suburban hospital - not a fair comparison. You have to ask, what would the suburban hospital's mortality rate be if they had the same type of patients as the urban hospital.
DeleteThe fact that you're ignorant of this concept tells me you're not really a "professional statistician."
A professional statistician who doesn't normalize? Huh. May I ask what kind of software tools you use in your analysis? How is it that your data is always on the same scale? Or is your point that it is improper to compare across different demographics? Do you feel that way about all studies that separate demographics?
DeleteWhen you guys keep repeating that the UK has a higher crime rate than the US, which I don't believe by the way, you say nothing about demographics. Now, all of a sudden, it's all the rave.
Deletei wish somebody-maybe baldr-would make a study of cops in us vs canada. my theory is that with the constant stress of knowing lots of people you deal with on the street are armed is very harmful to our cops health and my guess is that canadian cops live as much as 10yrs longer......
ReplyDeletetom webber
miami
Well, Children, I see you want to deny that the murder rates among Canada's various demographic groups is virtually the sames as that of the same groups in the United States.
ReplyDeleteWould you like to come over to my place and argue the point? I don't edit or take down posts. I only post facts.
Stranger
Nobody's editing or taking down comments here either except for rare exceptions.
DeleteStatistical conclusions depend entirely on assumptions. Worse yet, there are millions of factors that influence a person's behavior. Any statistical claims that firearms are the major factor affecting the behavior of the people in any country are just that: claims.
ReplyDeleteMore importantly, statistical arguments for denying rights is simply evil. Like someone illustrated in another post, utilitarian arguments enabled Nazi Germany to justify murdering 100s of thousands of German citizens who would be a drag on their society. My life and rights are not subject statistics or arguments ... they are absolute.
"Absolute," huh? You really live in a fantasy world all your own.
DeleteMikeb, have you controlled for all factors--race, economic conditions, educational levels, population density, weather, and so forth? Here in the United States, Louisiana has a high murder rate, while Washington State has a low rate, but the gun laws in both were about the same in the reported period. Their populations are about the same in number. Could it be that a more pleasant climate (from my perspective, at least) makes people less violent?
ReplyDeleteSuck it up, Greg. The US has a higher murder rate than Canada and the UK. The only question is why? I say gun availability is part of the answer.
DeleteIt's hilarious that the same people who accept John Lott's fabricated "statistics" to argue that there are millions of DGU's and that the U.S. is safer with more gunz immediately discount any statistics that they don't like.
ReplyDeleteBefore you get all worked up about it, boyz. John Lott's work is shit, I've seen dead jellyfish with more rigor than his "findings".
Mikeb was the one discounting the study here. But are you saying that you've analyzed Lott's work and find errors in his method? If so, why don't you write an article on the subject? Or are you merely repeating what others have said?
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