Gun ownership is increasing!!!
Nope, this is a myth. In fact, gun ownership has been declining for 40 years.
The geographic patterns were some of the most surprising in the General Social Survey, researchers said. Gun ownership in both the South and the mountain region, which includes states like Montana, New Mexico and Wyoming, dropped to less than 40 percent of households this decade, down from 65 percent in the 1970s. The Northeast, where the household ownership rate is lowest, changed the least, at 22 percent this decade, compared with 29 percent in the 1970s.
Age groups presented another twist. While household ownership of guns among elderly Americans remained virtually unchanged from the 1970s to this decade at about 43 percent, ownership among young Americans plummeted. Household gun ownership among Americans under the age of 30 fell to 23 percent this decade from 47 percent in the 1970s. The survey showed a similar decline for Americans ages 30 to 44.
Still more:
Many Americans were introduced to guns through military service, which involved a large part of the population in the Vietnam War era, Dr. Webster said. Now that the Army is volunteer and a small fraction of the population, it is less a gateway for gun ownership, he said.
Urbanization also helped drive the decline. Rural areas, where gun ownership is the highest, are now home to about 17 percent of Americans, down from 27 percent in the 1970s. According to the survey, just 23 percent of households in cities owned guns in the 2000s, compared with 56 percent of households in rural areas. That was down from 70 percent of rural households in the 1970s.
The country’s changing demographics may also play a role. While the rate of gun ownership among women has remained relatively constant over the years at about 10 percent, which is less than one-third of the rate among men today, more women are heading households without men, another possible contributor to the decline in household gun ownership. Women living in households where there were guns that were not their own declined to a fifth in 2012 down from a third in 1980.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150353/self-reported-gun-ownership-highest-1993.aspx
ReplyDeleteOf course, if someone calls me to ask about the guns I own, I'll hang up.
In your last post, you attributed the drop in accidental gun death to a drop in gun ownership. But the drop in accidental gun deaths is 75% over the last 40 years, and that is total, not rate. You have some explaining to do.
ReplyDeleteWhy?
DeleteAs this post points out, gun ownership among the younger demographics (read: people with children) has fallen dramatically.
Children don't represent the majority of accidental death by gun.
DeleteIt's funny how calling someone on the phone and asking them if they own guns is gospel, but if they were to also ask if they used that gun defensively it becomes junk science.
ReplyDeleteOf course you don't see the difference between those two questions.
DeleteWhy don't you tell us the difference? I think both could be subject to lying.
DeleteMy, TS, you are confused, aren't you?
DeleteThe many discredited Kleck surveys weren't debunked because they were phone phone surveys. Properly conducted, a phone survey is perfectly valid.
All reputable pollsters/surveyors understand that a certain percentage of respondents are either lying or don't understand the question or may exaggerate. The problems with Kleck's methodology are many--but we have the benefit that we can check the results. In Kleck's most famous 2.5M DGUs per year, his respondents claimed they had shot and wounded a bad guy. This means there should be some 30,000 justifiable homicides each year from guns alone. But, as we know, there are usually about 200-250 justifiable homicides each year from all causes (guns, knives, clubs, etc)
The recent National Academies of Science report puts the minimum number of defensive gun uses per annum at 300,000. I suppose you'll argue with them, too?
DeleteGreggy: You misstate what the National Academies of Science actually said. The NAS report actually stated DGU figures varied from a low of 108,000 to 3M. (2013)
DeleteBut, again, what is a DGU? The answer varies. Is a DGU when you hear something in your garage and when you investigate with a gun the noise isn't heard again? Is a DGU when you pick a fight and when you realize you're getting the snot beat out of you, you pull a gun?
That's the problem--many so-called DGUs are actually attempts to harrass or intimidate.
Go on, Jade. You talked about what Kleck did wrong, but what did the gun ownership survey do right? How do they account for the "none of your damn business" crowd? Remember, you are the one who keeps telling us how paranoid Gunloons are about government out to get them. These are untrusting people, right?
DeleteThe problem with the Kleck survey is that it clashes with reality. Same with the GSS survey. We know production has taken off. We know CCW has taken off. The community witnesses more crowded classrooms, shows, conventions, ranges. But hey, you've been to thousands of gun shows for 40 or more years. Are you witnessing a thinning of the crowd? Be honest.
TS: As I noted previously, every survey or poll is going to get some number of respondents who lie or don't understand what's asked or exaggerate. There are ways to account for this statistically. Do you need an explanation on how?
DeleteAgain, we can see how Kleck fouled up because 1.) he has many surveys with differing results, and more importantly, 2.) we can check his results against actual numbers. In his 2.5M DGU survey, there should be some 30,000 justifiable homicides by gun each year. There are actually fewer than 150 each year. When you're off by factors of several hundred, you have a problem.
Re the GSS, it's used by virtually every Govt agency and many commercial companies--so there's pretty widespread confidence in it. Further, the GSS asks not just about guns but other items such as voting, religious affiliation, etc. We can check those numbers against actual results as well.
Your entire argument is based on anecdote--well, I see more people buying guns and gosh, there were lots of people at the gunshow.
Yes, Jade. Give me an explanation on how they accounted for lying, specifically for the gun issue. That's not as simple as religious affiliation or voting. As you are well aware, a lot of gun owners are opposed to registration. They don't want a record of them owing guns, and you have to consider that this attitude is driven by political climate and is likely to have been. Have they accounted for this? Are they accounting for this differently than in the 70s?
DeleteLike I said, it clashes with reality. Not just antidotes. More guns are being manufactured and imported than ever before. That's not subjective. Your explanation for how it's possible is highly unlikely- that's not the way markets tend to work. For your voting example, you'd have to question poll results that show Romney winning in a landslide.
Hmm, missed a line. It should read:
Delete...and is likely to have been different in the 70s.
Most DGUs are not defensive at all. It's only human nature that when asked, a gun owner is going to slant the facts in his own favor. Many supposed DGUs were unnecessary and even criminal.
DeleteIt's because of bigotry like yours, Mikeb, that we need Stand Your Ground laws.
DeleteOk, Mike. You've established that gun owners are liars who slant things in their own favor. Now tell me why you believe this survey then? That's my whole point of bringing up the Kleck survey. We know that a good chunk of gun owners don't like a record of them owning guns.
DeleteYou're playing dumb, TS.
DeleteLet's say a certain percentage of folks called on the phone lied about owning guns for whatever reason. Wouldn't the percentage who do that remain more or less constant? Now look at the downward trend.
Get me?
Mikeb, you're ignoring the evidence of an increase in gun ownership, particularly over the last decade.
DeleteNo, mike. You didn't read what I said about it being tied to the political winds. The gun control movement really started picking up steam in the 80s. But you didn't accept that some portion may be lying when you used this poll to say there are "only" 65 million gun owners.
DeleteGreg, you're the one ignoring evidence. Jadegold presented it above in the post.
DeleteThe record sales must mean that, per capita, gun owners own more guns now than they did say five years ago. Doesn't that make sense?
Address the Gallup poll.
DeleteJadegold,
ReplyDeleteMy opinion is that it doesn't matter it the number is climbing or falling, or its 60% or 6%. Its an individual right, just like all the others. If thinking the number going down makes you more comfortable, then by all means believe that. I'm sure that the growing sales of new firearms and ammo mean nothing. Along with the growing number of people getting carry permits.
Your opinion is wrong.
DeleteIf you read Heller--all of it--not just the parts you like, you'll find Fat Tony Scalia disagrees with you.
Jadegold, where'd you get the idea that the Supreme Court gives us our rights? All it does is rule on the law.
DeleteMisrepresenting Supreme Court precedents? Come now, Jade, that's Laci's schtick.
DeleteGreggy: So you believe rights come from Santa Claus? Seriously, if you really wish to debate the fictitious "natural rights" nonsense, you'll really have to read up.
DeleteA simple test: Natural rights are said to be endowed on us by a Creator. Who is this Creator? And how do you know what the Creator thinks?
Boy, you're having a tough time comprehending Ssgmarkcr's words today. He said it is an "individual right". Are you trying to tell me that Scalia disagrees with that?
DeleteI figured maybe it was my accent.....
DeletePeople have attributed natural rights to a creator, but that's not necessary. My position on rights is that they come from the fact that we have the ability to choose. Anyone who wants to limit my choices must give a damned good reason as to why that should be done.
DeleteThis is a good fallback position for you guys. First you bombard us with "gun ownership is up while crime is down." We argue endlessly about causation and correlation. Now that your premise is proven wrong, the part about gun ownership being up, you fall back on "oh, well it doesn't matter anyway."
DeleteYour integrity as honest men is a joke, which makes perfect sense among people who need guns to feel whole.
Why do you have to be such a whiny putz, Mikeb? I don't insist on causation, even though you keep saying that I do. I and others have shown you sources, including the Gallup organization, for the idea that gun ownership is on the rise. Certainly, gun laws are loosening around the nation. But with all that, you have the gall to call me and othes liars.
DeleteNo wonder you hate the idea of honorable people standing up for their rights. It gets in the way of being you.
+1
Delete"We argue endlessly about causation and correlation. Now that your premise is proven wrong, the part about gun ownership being up, you fall back on "oh, well it doesn't matter anyway."
DeleteYou're right, we do argue about it endlessly at times. Its very difficult to prove causation in these types of issues because there are so many variables involved. I actually came to accept this on Japete's blog.
Once that is accepted though, you have to concede that it works both ways. If we must concede that tough gun laws don't result in higher crime, (Chicago,NYC,DC) then it also calls into question other beliefs such as a drop in the percentage of gun owners has resulted in a drop in gun violence.
I don't fall back on the "it doesn't really matter" mindset because I've lost an argument. That was my belief to start with. Until the Constitution is amended, gun ownership is an individual right as interpreted by the US Supreme Court. Subject to reasonable limitations. We can still debate those limitations, that will likely keep us busy for a while.
US adult population in 1970 - 133,792,031 * 65% = 86,964,820 gun owners.
ReplyDeleteUS adult population in 2010 - 234,564,071 * 40% = 93,825,628 gun owners.
If you take out the kids in both population numbers (everyone under 18) then it looks like even accepting your numbers as accurate equals more gun owners today than in 1970.
You can always take my numbers as accurate. Unfortunately, yours leave much to be desired.
DeleteOne of the problems with dealing with gunloons is many are innumerate. Here, we see Anon has confused rates with raw numbers--a common gunloon failing or ploy. We are also treated to a possibly misread cherry-picking. To wit, Anon suggest that gun ownership in 1970 was 65% Actually, as the aricle notes that gun ownership in the South and the mountain region, which includes states like Montana, New Mexico and Wyoming was about 65% during the 1970s (not just 1970). Similarly, the 40% figure is in the South and the mountain region, which includes states like Montana, New Mexico and Wyoming during the decade of the 2000's.
Jadegold, I wouldn't take anything you say as true without verification, even if you claimed the sky is blue on a clear day.
DeleteOf course, Greggy. That's why you are where you are and I am where I am.
DeleteAnd where is that? Maryland? You talk a vague line, but you offer no details.
DeleteMike, why didn't you publish the Pew poll in its entirety?
ReplyDelete