Sunday, July 28, 2013

Correlation vs. Causation

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14 comments:

  1. Notice how this graph also uses the statistical trick of making a correlation look stronger by putting them on different scales? And It is not just adjusting for magnitude.

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  2. Let's also note that you insist on missing the important point. If the claim of gun control freaks were correct, the homicide rate would have gone up while gun laws loosened. But the trend is in the opposite direction. You can go on and on about how this or that might have happened had the laws been different, but the inescapable fact is that the rate of homicide has gone down at the same time that gun laws have improved.

    Again and still and always, I'm not saying that this is a causal relationship. What I'm saying is that the fact invalidates the argument of gun control.

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    1. No Greg. Your side is the one that abuses the causation/correlation thing.

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    2. Show me where I have done that.

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    3. Nice dodge. Refuse to answer the questions put to you and instead require Greg to answer for what a nebulous group of people have said and done.

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    4. Greg didn't ask a question, so I didn't dodge anything. What Greg did was to spout some more causation/correlation confusion. Oh, and he threw in one of his usual denials. I've had to beat Greg up repeatedly over the bullshit suggestion that gun ownership has increased (a lie) and AS A RESULT crime has decreased. That's what he's inferred, suggested, said outright, and meant too many times to count.

      He and you both know I don't respond to lying bullshit challenges to search through past comment threads, even more tedious than this one, just to win a point in the argument which Greg will never ever admit to.

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    5. Mikeb, where have I said that improvements in gun laws are the cause of the decline in violent crime? I've said repeatedly that the two things have happened at the same time. I've said that this fact invalidates the gun control narrative.

      And there you go again, tossing around claims of lies, even though I've shown you my source for the claim that gun ownership is on the rise. Call the Gallup organization liars.

      But unless you want us to think of you as a dirty, snivelling liar, prove that I have claimed that the concurrence of improved gun laws and violence rates is causal.

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  3. Gee Ted Nugent ever figure the rate went down because most of the offenders are in jail. We have the largest prison population in the world. That's why crime is down, they are in jail unable to commit more crimes.

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    1. Ted Nugent wasn't mentioned anywhere here, but now you're singing out of the conservative hymnal about locking up violent criminals.

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    2. Have our incarceration rates changed since 2006? Has it been going up since the early 90s when our crime rates started dropping? Maybe, I know we have the highest incarceration rate, but I haven't seen it expressed over time.

      It could be from our incarceration rate. It could be because of CCW. It could be because of Roe v. Wade, or the waning crack epidemic, or advanced policing techniques- there are a lot of possibilities that haven't been proven. But I'll tell you what it is not from... Gun control.

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    3. Told you three times now, no surprise you cannot comprehend, YOU are Ted Nugent.

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    4. Since that's not the name that appears on my birth certificate or carry license, and since no one calls me that in real life, you'll have to excuse me for not recognizing it as my name. In fact, only two persons got to name me, and neither of them was named Kevin or Anonymous.

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    5. If you do not want to be called Ted Nugent, you should not act just like Ted Nugent.

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  4. I will say this: The farther I move away from Microsoft products, the calmer I am.

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