Linoge certainly puts in the effort, I'll say that. A number of times he's written some of the longest comments I've ever seen in response to something I've said. But nothing compares to this.
You may have to go over to his place to see it properly, but you need to go there anyway to read his unbelievably prolix explanation.
When you get to the part about y = -3E-42x6 + 4E-33x5 – 2E-24x4 + 5E-16x3 – 7E-08x2 + 5.3301x – 2E+08, and you're still with him, my hat's off to ya.
In describing the changes between last year's chart and this updated one, twice Linoge assured us that any change "does not affect the accuracy of the data." I'm not sure why it was necessary to repeat that. I don't doubt his data or his honesty. I only doubt his conclusions.
Conclusions: Obviously, both the population of America and the number of firearms in America have been increasing over the past 26 years. Additionally, the number of firearms has been, very slightly, increasing faster than the population.On the other hand, firearm-related deaths have declined, despite a significant bump in the early 1990s. Those deaths have very slowly started increasing again in the past five years, but at a rate roughly commensurate with the population’s.
And on the third hand, the rate of firearm deaths in relation to both population and number of firearms has been steadily decreasing (with a few bumps, here and there) over the course of the 26 years graphed.
This post graphically demonstrates that the hypothesis that more firearms result in more firearm-related deaths is historically and demonstrably false.
Does anyone else have a problem with that? Please, I'm looking for one pro-gun voice to admit that Linoge is a bit of a bullshitter. I know I risk his ferocious indignation for saying that, as well as that of his legion of fanboys, but I don't know how else to say it.
Can I hear an "aye" from just one pro-gunner?
http://www.ted.com/talks/steven_pinker_on_the_myth_of_violence.html
ReplyDeleteInteresting that he notes the 16th Century showed a sharp drop. This coincides with the hand-held musket becoming commonplace.
Man, I didn't even have to go to his place to find a pretty big whopper. One of the factors that evades him completely is the fact that some 80% of all guns are owned by 20% of the population. IOW, while more guns are coming to be purchased--they tend to be purchased by folks who already own guns.
ReplyDeleteHe is assuming one gun, one gunowner.
There are a whole host of errors and bad assumptions made by Linoge; his wife is a world class mathematician, I can't imagine what she'd think if she saw this dog's breakfast.
Of course, there's a part of me that hopes the gunloon community embraces Linoge's 'work' and promotes it. Then we can all have fun watching it do an all-day Hindenberg. But I suspect even they will see all the flaws and decline to touch it.
--JadeGold
Why am I hearing Thomas Dolby's "She Blinded me with Science" when I look at this chart?
ReplyDeleteOh, it's because "blind with science" is a British expression that means to deliberately confuse someone by giving the impression of highly complex knowledge.
Anon1 has a highly unusal definition of commonplace. I think he needs to learn about military weaponry and tactics since the pike was used up until 1700. The pike was even used during the American Revolution and was called a "trench spear". These trench spears were made by local blacksmiths saw limited use until enough bayonets could be procured for general use by both Continental Army and attached militia units.
Likewise, Scottish Highlanders used the claymore up until Culloden in 1746 but Jacobite troops were cut up by Government forces' artillery.
Even more importantly, the bayonet was what replaced the pike to protect the soldiers who were reloading their weapons.
"Good heavens, Miss Sakamoto! You're beautiful!"
Mike,
ReplyDeleteI think what you want to see is here:
http://www.everydaynodaysoff.com/2010/06/11/more-guns-equals-less-crime/
The problem with statistics is that if one Seung-Hui Cho, Nidal Hasan, Derrick Bird, or similar person gets their hands on a firearm, it screws up all that beautiful artwork.
And then you have Magnus Pyke waving his arms and saying "SCIENCE!"
"Oh, it's because "blind with science" is a British expression that means to deliberately confuse someone by giving the impression of highly complex knowledge."
ReplyDeleteSort of like those supposed "experts" that made up all of that global warming nonsense.
FWM, Are you a global warming denier, seriously? I thought those guys have all been embarrassed into submission or at least silence. I should do a post on it someday.
ReplyDeleteYa, all of this stats and data stuff sucks. Linoge should instead just throw some theories out there, back them up with no data, and then promote them on his blog as irrefutable fact.
ReplyDeleteThere are a whole host of errors and bad assumptions made by Linoge; his wife is a world class mathematician, I can't imagine what she'd think if she saw this dog's breakfast.
ReplyDeleteAnyone else find it creepy that JadeGold has dug into Linoge's history enough that he has the specific's on Linoge's wife? I guess it's not surprising knowing some of his past exploits.