Monday, August 27, 2012

8.5 Million New Guns in 2010 - 16.5 Million Background Checks

ABC reports

There are more than 129,817 federally licensed firearms dealers in the United States, according to the latest Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives numbers (as of Aug. 1) .  Of those, 51,438 are retail gun stores, 7,356 are pawn shops and 61,562 are collectors, with the balance of the licenses belonging mostly to manufacturers and importers of firearms and destructive devices.
For comparison, here are some numbers of other ubiquitous elements of American life:
  • Gas Stations in the U.S. (2011):  143,839 (source TD LINX/Nielsen via National Associations of Convenience Stores, Association for Convenience for Convenience and Fuel Retailing)
  • Grocery Stores in the U.S. (2011) 36,569 (source:  Food Marketing Institute)
  • McDonald’s restaurants in the U.S. (2011): 14,098 (Source:  McDonald’s Corporation Annual Report 2011)
That's a lot of gun dealers. But what about individual guns?

According to ATF reports, in 2010 there were 5,459,240 new firearms manufactured in the United States, nearly all (95 percent) for the U.S. market.   An additional 3,252,404 firearms were imported to the United States.

Right now if you don’t have a criminal record and you have not been adjudicated as mentally incompetent, you can buy guns.  In 2010 the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) ran 16,454,951 background checks for firearms purchases.

The numbers are mind-boggling. Let me try to understand. There were 8.5 million new guns, between manufacture and import, in 2010.  Yet there were twice that many background checks?

Many places a guy with a concealed carry license can buy a new gun without doing another background check, which makes the disparity even more difficult to understand.

Can we assume the 8.5 million new firearms in 2010 includes rifles and shotguns, for which no background check is required in most states? Even worse.  Handguns to background checks is about a 1 to 4 ratio.

How can there be 4 times as many background checks as there are guns to purchase? Some of them may be done in pawn shops where the gun involved is not one of the 2010 vintage.  But can that explain the tremendous disparity?

One conclusion: whenever the pro-gun crowd use background checks as an indicator of gun sales, we can't take it too seriously.  There's some explaining to do.

What's your opinion?  Please leave a comment.

21 comments:

  1. Mike, is it really that difficult to figure out where the the other back ground check figures come from? USED GUNS! Background checks must be performed on the sales of used guns just the same as new guns from licensed dealers. Geesh...

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  2. "Can we assume the 8.5 million new firearms in 2010 includes rifles and shotguns, for which no background check is required in most states?"

    Mike, you are talking about NICS checks. NICS are required on all firearms transfers by licensed dealers. This includes long guns and any used gun as well as handguns.

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  3. "Can we assume the 8.5 million new firearms in 2010 includes rifles and shotguns, for which no background check is required in most states?"

    Again, you prove just how stupid you are.

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    Replies
    1. In order to buy a shotgun in Nevada, is a background check required?

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    2. A brand new one? Yes.

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  4. There were 8.5 million new guns, between manufacture and import, in 2010. Yet there were twice that many background checks?

    NICS is used for background checks in some jurisdictions for CCW permits. Some jurisdictions conduct annual NICS for their CCW holders. Some jurisdictions require NICS on all sales. California is one (which explains their low violent crime rate and lack of rampage killings). Illinois requires a background check just to get a FOID before you can purchase a firearm, that also requires a NICS check.

    Can we assume the 8.5 million new firearms in 2010 includes rifles and shotguns, for which no background check is required in most states?

    Pistols 2,258,450
    Revolvers 558,927
    Rifles 1,830,556
    Shoguns 743,378
    Misc 67,929
    Total new firearms 5,459,240
    Imported firearms 3,252,404
    Total firearms 8,711,658 for which a NICS is required.

    What makes you think NICS is not required for rifles and shotguns?

    One conclusion: whenever the pro-gun crowd use background checks as an indicator of gun sales, we can't take it too seriously.

    I don't think it's ever been claimed NICS is 100% accurate at indicating firearm sales. For that you'd want to look at the ATF manufacturing and import reports. So, let's do that.
    New Export Import Total
    2001 2,932,655 - 172,611 + 1,366,896 = 4,126,940
    2002 3,366,895 - 150,759 + 1,629,237 = 4,845,373
    2003 3,308,404 - 141,912 + 1,466,502 = 4,632,994
    2004 3,099,025 - 139,920 + 1,910,859 = 4,869,964
    2005 3,241,494 - 194,682 + 2,106,675 = 5,153,487
    2006 3,653,324 - 367,521 + 2,432,522 = 5,718,325
    2007 3,922,613 - 204,782 + 2,743,993 = 6,461,824
    2008 4,498,944 - 228,488 + 2,606,386 = 6,876,842
    2009 5,555,818 - 194,744 + 3,607,106 = 8,968,180
    2010 5,459,240 - 241,977 + 2,839,947 = 8,057,210

    That's 59,711,139 additional firearms in the hands of us lowly civilians in the past decade. Wow, that's a whole lotta guns to confiscate or register. If I'm not mistaken, it's been estimated (by CNN I think) that by the end of the year (2012), there will be 320,000,000 firearms in civilian hands. Oh, the manufacturing data doesn't include firearms manufactured for the military.

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    1. Wow Bill! almost 60 million guns added this decade? If reality was like it is in Mike's head; with all of those guns going off all of the time, the population in the US would be falling.

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    2. I know, huh?

      It's funny, the US get's blamed for the proliferation of firearms throughout the world, but in 2010 we imported nearly 12 times the number of firearms that were exported, and over the past decade we exported only 2 million civilian arms. The UN needs to keeps it grubby hands out of the civilian firearms market.

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  5. I have seen stores run background checks on long gun purchases that were not required at all. It is also my understanding that various people/entities run background checks for reasons unrelated to firearms purchases. I can also picture lots of trading which would lead to a lot of background checks.

    I think background checks definitely indicate firearm purchase activity -- of course not one to one. If someone wants to know how many new firearms people purchase, I believe manufacturer data is more accurate.

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  6. forgot to mention, the information in the article is wrong. It shows 2010 firearm manufacturing info, 2011 NICS and 2011 import info. NICS checks for 2010 was 14,409,616 and imports for 2010 was 2,839,947.

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  7. Mikeb, when you post obvious nonsense, you lose even more credibility than when you post your usual nonsense. When was the last time that you bought a rifle or shotgun? The process is the same as for a handgun. Here in Arkansas, a carry license holder gets a pass on all three. In states that don't have that kind of exemption, everyone gets checked for everything.

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    1. Let me ask you this, Greg. Are hunting rifles and shotguns ONLY sold by FFL dealers?

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    2. mikeb said: "Can we assume the 8.5 million new firearms in 2010 includes rifles and shotguns, for which no background check is required in most states?"

      ALL new firearms must be transferred through an FFL. All firearms transferred through an FFL must be done in compliance with background check regulations.

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    3. MikeB any business which sells firearms needs to have an FFL. That includes retails chains, sporting good stores, pawn shops, bona fide gun stores, whatever. Unless you purchase a rifle, shotgun, or handgun from a private individual, you are purchasing it from an FFL.

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  8. Mikeb, please listen:

    1. Any firearm, with the exception of muzzleloaders, sold through an FFL means either that the buyer has a license of some kind (in a few states) or gets a background check run. That's long guns, short guns, doesn't matter.

    2. Private sellers don't have to run background checks in most states. In fact they can't. But private sellers aren't included in the numbers that you gave, since THOSE NUMBERS REFER TO BACKGROUND CHECKS.

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  9. easy answer: pawn shops. since guns are a wonderful investment and hold their value no matter what the economy does, they make great short term loan collateral. Thanks to a job loss, I've pawned the same Beretta half a dozen times, and had to go through the background check each time I got it out of pawn. One gun, 6 background checks.

    And yes, background checks are required on rifles and shotguns just as they are on handguns.

    If you're going to post inflamatory nonsense, at least make have it pass the initial BS test...

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    1. Thanks Anonymous, that's a good example of how the number of background checks can be misleading when talking about gun sales.

      I didn't know every single new gun of every kind goes through an FFL and background check when sold. I still find that hard to believe. Maybe I'm thinking back to the early 80s when it was different.

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    2. Mikeb, when are you going to admit that you know little about guns and nothing about gun laws? You should learn the subject before you propose legislation.

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  10. Used guns and pawn shops are not the only reason for the disparity ... Also last years guns, and the year before that. Old inventory. It's not like only guns manufactured this year are available for purchase. What a foolish question.

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    1. You're right that's another big factor, last year's inventory.

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  11. New and re-new firearms license also require a background check. Some states re-check current licenses yearly.

    A change in your license, say you move and change your address or change the gun type or upgrade in your license also requires a background check.

    Getting a license in another state if you move there or getting a non resident license all require more background checks even if you already have one.

    You can take a firearm in for repair without anything, but to pick it back up from the repair shop requires a background check before thay are allowed to release it to you.

    Certian gun parts require a background check just like a complete gun before they can be sold.

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