Sunday, August 24, 2008

McCain vs. Obama/Biden

Thanks to Real Clear Politics for the stats below. It's certainly clear that Obama's lead has shrunk since a little over a month ago when I last published the RCP stats.

Election 2008
RCP National Average45.043.4Obama +1.6
Favorable Ratings+18.3+16.2Obama +2.1
Intrade Market Odds62.136.6-
Electoral CollegeObamaMcCainToss Ups
RCP Electoral Count228174136
No Toss Up States264274-
Battleground StatesObamaMcCainSpread
Ohio44.745.7McCain +1.0
Michigan46.042.0Obama +4.0
Minnesota47.543.0Obama +4.5
Colorado45.345.8McCain +0.5
Virginia45.746.3McCain +0.6
Florida44.847.4McCain +2.6

What I'm curious to see is what effect the selection of Joe Biden will have. Naturally the opinions of experts are mixed. Reid Wilson wrote a nice piece yesterday entitled, "Why Biden is the Perfect Pick."

Clearly, Biden's experience in Washington ensures that he cannot adopt the same outsider mantle Obama owns. But Obama's brand, like McCain's, is so strong on its own that it doesn't need to be augmented by further change. Instead, Obama had weaknesses and gaps to fill, and he chose a candidate who did just that.

CNN reports that in his first public appearance with Obama in Springfield, Senator Biden launched into an attack of McCain, a fairly predictable one I might add.

"John McCain ... served our country with extreme courage, and I know he wants to do right by America," he said of his Senate colleague and the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. "But the harsh truth is loud and clear: You can't change America when you supported George Bush's policies 95 percent of the time."

He also seized on a McCain comment from this week when he could not remember how many houses he owns and said McCain was out of touch with the "kitchen-table" issues that working families face.

I'm hoping that the stats produced by Real Clear Politics do not indicate an inexorable slide in Obama's formidable lead. And if they do, that the naming of Senator Joe Biden will mark a rejuvenation of what has been so far a very impressive campaign.


  1. Mike,

    Stats, you've gone over to the Dark Side. Welcome }:>

  2. Not the pick of people like me:
    Exhibits A through Z.

    With the Patriot act in place and this just coming out of the Justice Department:

    More creeping fascism.

    You are going to see a lot more single issue voters regarding firearms rights and right to dissent from the status quo.

    People like me and our supposed merry gang of three percenter of the lawful firearms owners that would give the FBI and BATFE our ammo back one round at a time pay attention to these sorts of things.

    McCain looks slightly safer. He doesn't have a long record of a gun control or gun eradication agenda.

    The Second Amendment was never about "sporting purposes" and it's needed to protect the First and Fourth to the point of domestic insurrection if need be.

    Think of it as some of us having a Romanian mindset regarding despotic leadersand we're better equipped and trained, courtesy of US Military service, than the Romanians were when they threw off their yokes and chains. Be a shame for it to have to come to that in the USA. You can only push people in a corner so far before you will get a response you really don't want.

  3. I dunno, I think the average voter doesn't vote much for the vice president as they do the president. I can see veep picks being a boon for a candidate showing if McCain chooses Lieberman it may make him appear more bi-partisan, or Sarah Palin shows that he respects the republican base and what youth brings to the ticket....or Mitt Romney or Rudi Giuliani just to remind the base how much of a fascist and how much he hates us.

    : ]

    Also Congrats on finding stats...once you start pouring over number charts to find a story underneath you'll never turn back!

  4. If people thought about it, who's run the GW show? GW or Cheney and Co.?

  5. Mike,Don't give up on Obama and the American people just yet. The polls are going to fluctuate by a few points every few weeks, but barring any major scandal by either candidate or some other geo-political event like an attack on US interests or an attack by the Bush admin on Iran, the polls will stay the same. Expect to see a bump after the Dem convention this week, followed by another bump and contraction for the McCain campaign after the GOP convention.

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  7. Dear Mr. Principle, thanks for the comment about expecting continued fluctuation. Kudos to you for predicting Biden over at your site.

    Thomas, I'm with you on that creeping fascism. It's bad news. I know you don't go for Obama/Biden over their gun stance, among other things, but don't you think the creeping fascism would continue unabated under McCain?

  8. I think it would be slower. McCain is less fascist in inclinations than Bush, judging by his voting records.

    Also, he got to be a jet pilot, war hero, saved people in a carrier fire on the USS Forrestal, AND he married a pretty rich girl who's family owns breweries and beer distribution concerns. Shows good judgment in my book. :-)

  9. Just to argue on Mike's Side, I've got to say that McCain's involvement in McCain Feingold and McCain Kennedy show definite facist Creep...granted the other halves of those bills are Democrats LESS Athoritarian than Obama.

    Of course I see Obama as a total rookie-fool who reminds me deeply of our current Govenor Deval Patrick, who has done nothing but mishaps, blunders and public apologies for almost a full year now (and he started breaking campaign promices three Weeks BEFORE he was inaugerated!!!) This debauchery has caused the nearly all Democrat legislature to fight AGAINST him on nearly all issues, leaving the state in gridlock....this has been GREAT, seeing as no liberal laws are GOOD liberal laws...and overall while govenment hasn't shrunk hasn't grown.

    McCain has spend the majority of his political career playing with Democrats in Washington and bad-mouthing fellow republicans (The last 2 years excluded) I can see that his running against Obama and IMHO likely winning will burn his bridges with Democrats in Congress, and the Republians never had much for bridges with him for Mac I see gridlock as well....not great, but good enugh end-result for me.

    McCain I can't really trust who he'd pick for Supreme Court Justices, but with Obama I CAN trust him to pick people I'd hate.

    Because of that I'll be voting for McCain and then getting fall-down drunk that eveing....maybe starting as soon as I get home from the polls in the morning

  10. A lot of liberals have poked fun at how McCain seems to mention his POW experience too much, as if to say he's an old fool who has nothing better than that to brag about. Well, I don't engage in that because I personally have a great respect for fighter pilots and war veterans. Dropping the first wife and marrying the younger rich chick, I don't know, to me it doesn't seem all that bad really.

    I go for Obama because I think we desperately need a change, and that's what he's promised.