Jamaica started replacing leaded gasoline with unleaded in 1990 and banned leaded gasoline completelyin 2000. That's a pretty steep drop (it took the United States a full two decades to go from introduction to complete ban). So what you'd expect is a fairly steep drop in violent crime with a lag of 20 years—i.e., starting around 2010. What we got was a 40% drop in murder between 2009 and 2013.
Pretty remarkable, no? It fits the lead hypothesis like a glove.
Again: this is just murder, not violent crime in general. And all I have here is a horseback estimate of how quickly leaded gasoline was phased out in Jamaica. What I don't have is a time series of blood lead levels in small children going back to 1990. So don't take this too seriously. But don't dismiss it either. It's yet another data point that suggests leaded gasoline really does have a significant impact on violent crime.
"There were 1,682 reported murders in 2009 and 1,428 in 2010. Since 2011 the murder rate has continued to fall following the downward trend started in 2010, with increases in police patrols, curfews and more effective anti-gang activities."
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Jamaica
Or maybe it is the leaded gas. Though what they are doing in Jamaica seems to mirror what they are claiming is the cause of the drop in homicides in Chicago.
You mean guns aren't the cause?
ReplyDeleteMaybe it IS the unleaded gas. Gradually people are becoming less violent and crazy ans the environment improves.
ReplyDeleteSo you'll be declaring victory in the United States, then?
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